…has (most likely) been greatly exaggerated.
I have no specific inside information but I do a lot of DoD work and I’m not seeing any massive shift away from ESRI. Sure, there’s been a few instances of Google Earth appliances and individual projects using open-source tools but there’s been no dramatic sea-change that would drive ESRI to shutter its (unrelated) publishing business. The whole thing seems a little shaky to me.
Just my 2 cents.